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Baseball is happening in 2022, and it is happening in full force. With the splendid news of the lockout catastrophe on Th, we are ready to swoop full steam ahead into typhoon season!

I take had my caput deep in baseball information since before Christmas, so I wanted to come up out with a miniature version of my own draft guide. In this curt-ish post, you will many of the most interesting things I establish in my 2022 research, and my strategy and targets for every position.

Let's have at it!

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General Findings / Tips

#i - Get Steals Early on

Looking at current NFBC ADP and ATC hitter projections, I fabricated the plot beneath. It shows you how many projected steals are in each round of the draft, assuming a 12-team league (then picks i-12 is circular 1, 13-24 is round 2, etc.). Here's what it looks like:

The three tallest confined are the beginning three rounds of the typhoon, and the first round stands well in a higher place the rest. That is crazy to see. In fact, 29% of all of the projected steals come from players beingness drafted within those peak 36 picks. If you come up out of the kickoff 3 rounds without steals, you may exist in trouble.

Yous could attempt to make up for information technology with a afterwards round Adalberto Mondesi or Myles Straw pick, but you are in punt-territory in other categories with those names, and they aren't fifty-fifty sure to steals that many bases since their playing time is far from solidified. It's very important to me to steals right away in my draft, in fact, I'm looking to draft two steal sources in my first iii picks.

#two Have Advantage of SP Tiers 3-5

There are certainly some names that stand to a higher place the remainder at the SP position (Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer), but things flatten out atrocious rapidly after the top tier or two of pitchers.

The SP's in the height 30 picks make up what you could consider tiers 1 and two. Those names are Cole, Burnes, Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob deGrom, and Zack Wheeler. Those names all have Cy Young-worthy stuff, with differing measures of reliability given their wellness situations.

Afterward those names, the next 24 pitchers are all pretty shut in terms of expectation. For instance, you are on averaging spending pick #38 on Julio Urias, so on average, you are paying option #94 for Frankie Montas. These projections are pretty like:

Pitcher	IP	W	SO	ERA	WHIP
Julio Urias	176	14	175	iii.58	1.15
Frankie Montas	178	12	191	3.63	1.20

This is not meant to be a knock on Urias or an endorsement of Montas (although in fairness, it could be taken every bit such and I wouldn't fight you about it), but simply a wait into how big y'all could brand the tier three pitchers.

From Urias at pick 38 the whole way downwards to Shane McClanahan at pick 111, there are 23 starting pitchers that really don't look much different by the projections and floor/ceiling calculations. Of course, you lot need vii-10 starters on your fantasy squad, and then this isn't to say wait until choice fourscore and so select a couple of these guys. The advice is this: you can afford to go hitter heavy for 3-4 picks then load up on SP betwixt picks twoscore and 110.

I would exist thrilled with a team that started with two steals sources and a big power bat with its first iii picks, and so went on to take iii SP's in the next four picks or and so. We'll talk more than about specific names afterward, but in general, this seems similar a very profitable fashion to attack the draft this flavour.

#3 Catch Upwards in Power Belatedly

Once again this year, nosotros find enough of options subsequently on in the draft in terms of finding dwelling house runs and RBI. The catch is that you lot won't exist getting batting boilerplate or steals from these names. The fashion to counter-act this is to actually lean heavily into steals and batting average early on. This is a good idea regardless because those categories become quite parse after y'all become by choice 50 or and so.

It is okay to be behind in homers and RBI equally you enter the later rounds. If you had to choice somewhere to exist behind, that is what I'd option. Y'all tin can make up basis quickly with some of the names in this scatter plot. Here I brandish every hitter that is projected for 30 or more homers and plot them with their ADP. Check it out.

I've highlighted my favorites, but you tin hover over to see who each dot represents. About of these guys have high strikeout rates, that is simply the trade-off yous accept to make to get these guys at these prices – so once more, it'southward really of import to accept a good batting average foundation if yous're diving in here. My absolute favorite names hither are Schwarber, Soler, and Renfroe just because of the strikeout rate improvements they each made last season – I really call up they have information technology in them to not really hurt your team's batting average while belting 35+ homers.

You volition discover that the bulk of those names are outfielders, which makes it non and then bad of an idea to save an outfield spot or two early on in the draft to fill with some of these names.

#4 Leave an SP Spot Open

This by and large applies to leagues that take some kind of maximum starting pitchers rostered, which is a bit rare, but even and then.

What seems to happen every unmarried year is that a handful of starting pitchers that don't go drafted await actually, really good early in the flavor. They are somewhat easy to identify, and they can really brand a fantasy team. Think Trevor Rogers, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, and Freddy Peralta last year. They each made a step forward over the offseason and were dominant pretty much all flavor long (salvage the missed time due to injury for Rogers). The sharp owners were picking them upwardly in April, and benefited massively.

This is very likely to happen once again in 2022, and you can really bolster your rotation by identifying and picking up these names quickly. How to identify them? Elementary! After two or three turns through each squad'southward rotation, expect for pitchers that see the following criteria.

1. A strikeout rate (K%) above 27%
2. A walk charge per unit (BB%) below 7%
3. (Optional) A basis-brawl charge per unit (GB%) in a higher place 45%

If you lot await at all the names of pitchers coming upwards in that search, y'all will see a list of established aces, and probably a few surprising names as well. Choice them up immediately.

You cannot easily do this if you load upwards on a bunch of later-round boring pitchers in the draft that you might be hesitant to drop because they're not bad pitchers. My recommendation is to get v or six pitchers and and so cease and be ready to pounce on these gratuitous agents – you will very likely find a jewel or two.

Tips & Picks by Position

Catcher
Aye, there's a small group of catchers that are expected to admittedly shell the balance of the field:

Those two dots in the top right are Salvador Perez and J.T. Realmuto. They both give you lot a leg-up on the field with their elevated playing fourth dimension and production at the plate (Perez for HR/RBI, Realmuto for a bit of everything, and possible double-digit steals).

Nonetheless, this is all broiled into the cost. We are seeing college ADPs on catchers in recent years every bit people chase these outlier players. I just cannot make myself do it. I would much rather spend my top typhoon picks and sale dollars on more reliable positions. I will continue to exist one of the final people drafting a catcher, especially in a one-catcher league - which most leagues are.

Priority Targets: None

Avoids: Salvador Perez, J.T. Realmuto, Keibert Ruiz, Adley Rutschman

General Targets: Elias Diaz, Travis d'Arnaud

More reading: Adventures in Scarcity, Catchers Edition

First Base

It is not the shallowest position on the lath, merely the production here is yet pretty top-heavy. Nosotros have 5 names continuing upwardly above the residuum: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Paul Goldschmidt, and Pete Alonso.

Given that I don't programme on using a starting time or second-rounder on the get-go 2 names hither given that I'm attacking steals, I've constitute myself going hard after the Olson-Goldy-Alonso trio.

I gravitate towards Olson and Alonso more considering of their improved strikeout rates concluding year, equally well as the stuff nosotros have seen with the baseball game over the last couple of seasons. I put together a Twitter thread here about this. I looked at various specific combinations of launch angle and exit velocity and saw what percent of the fourth dimension they went for a homer, compared between 2019 and 2021. What became clear was that it was indeed harder to hit homers in 2021. Scott White from CBS too wrote nigh this hither. The takeaway here is that homers aren't quite equally easy to discover and nosotros should lean a bit harder into the guys that really swing the bat hard.

Priority Target: Pete Alonso

Other Targets: Matt Olson, Joey Votto, Bobby Dalbec, Brandon Chugalug, Nathaniel Lowe

Avoids: Jose Abreu, Jared Walsh, Ty France, Anthony Rizzo

2d Base of operations

This is the second-shallowest position (to catcher). Of course, we cannot prioritize every unmarried position, fantasy drafts are a zero-sum game. I can't sit here and say that you should prioritize five departure positions with your get-go iv picks. If everything else is equal, I am trying to get a second basemen somewhat early in the draft.

The meridian canis familiaris at the position is Trea Turner, who I would accept at #1 in most situations. After that, you have Ozzie Albies and so, in my opinion, a pretty steep drop-off down to Marcus Semien and Whit Merrifield. Y'all will well-nigh likely take to use a summit-two selection to become Albies, but if I would miss on those ii I'one thousand probably waiting a bit – just honestly, I'm non likely to miss on one of those two.

Quite possibly my favorite player at the position based on price is Ketel Marte, who oft gets drafted after selection 70, which really doesn't brand a ton of sense to me. He isn't likely to steal many bases, but the contact and power combination he has in his bat makes him i of the higher-ceiling players in the game anyways. He could hit xxx homers with a .300 batting average if things suspension the right manner for him.

Priority Targets: Trea Turner, Ozzie Albies, Ketel Marte

Other Targets: Jorge Polanco, Tommy Edman, Luis Urias

Avoids: Marcus Semien, Jazz Chisholm, DJ LeMahieu

Shortstop

By the numbers, shortstop is the deepest position in the game this yr. Viii different shortstops go in the top 50 picks, so chances are that yous will end up with a expert ane. At that place are plenty of ways to build a squad, only y'all'll *probably* want to expect for some steals here.

One thing you don't want to do is be filling a starting heart infield spot late in the draft, because at that place is actually not much going on down the list in terms of safety or upside. You tin wait a bit on shortstop because of all of the great options, just brand sure you lot accept ii or three middle infielders in the first 150 picks or you're in some trouble.

My favorite hither is again Trea Turner, who is probably everybody'due south favorite. Besides him, I'm actually interested in Corey Seager and Willy Adames. One of those iii volition exist my starting shortstop on most every team I typhoon.

Priority Targets: Trea Turner, Fernando Tatis Jr., Corey Seager, Willy Adames

Other Targets: Trevor Story, Jorge Polanco, Luis Urias, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Crawford

Avoids: Xander Bogaerts, Javier Baez, Brendan Rodgers

Tertiary Base

This is a danger zone. In that location are shockingly few options at third base after the get-go few names are off the lath. All the same, if you prioritize a steals source and a 2d baseman early in the draft, you have probably missed the gunkhole. That's fine, everybody is going to miss a boat or 2 in the typhoon, but information technology's still of import to keep in heed the top-heaviness here.

The tiptop tier is clear Jose Ramirez by himself, then a significant step downwards (because of steals) to Rafael Devers and Manny Machado. Machado is a guy that can slip by choice 25 at times, which makes me gravitate towards him early in circular three if I take 1 of the commencement picks of a snake draft. I have started teams with Trea Turner, an ace pitcher, and so Machado and felt really expert about information technology.

I'm fine with missing and hoping for the all-time though, in that location really aren't many show-stopping bats here for your opponents to get ahead with.

Priority Targets: None

Other Targets: Manny Machado, Austin Riley, Justin Turner, Luis Urias, Josh Donaldson

Avoids: Adalberto Mondesi, DJ LeMahieu, Ryan McMahon, Matt Chapman

Outfield

Outfield is such a big position that it's hard to really drill down on it. There is really no consistency to outfielders either, there are power specialists and speed specialists and different player types all over the draft board.

One thing to note is that things wait much different between 3 and v starting OF leagues. A 12-team, 5 OF league will get-go threescore outfielders, which is a crazy big number and that makes your team pretty gross to look at if you don't get a couple of outfielders somewhat early.

As usual, in that location are plenty of cheap power sources in the outfield, so I will definitely exist reserving a starting spot or ii for some of those names that you lot'll find beneath. Let'southward merely get to my targets and avoids.

Priority Targets: One of Luis Robert, Tyler O'Neill, Byron Buxton (probably not two, definitely not all three), Andrew Vaughn

Other Targets: Yordan Alvarez, George Springer, Kyle Schwarber, Jarred Kelenic, Akil Baddoo, Hunter Renfroe, Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto

Avoids: Starling Marte, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Adolis Garcia, Eddie Rosario, Avisail Garcia

Starting Pitcher

Talked nigh my general strategy in a higher place. I'll miss the superlative two tiers of SP more often than not and then draft 2-4 names betwixt picks 50 and 100. There are plenty of high upside arms late in the draft, only this doesn't seem like a great year to put a ton of chips on those names. I'll take a few, but I really want most of my pitching staff taken intendance of by pick 150 or so. That probably means depending on the waiver wire for catchers and steals as I miss the top names every bit I grab up in pitching. Hither are my targets and avoids.

Targets: Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, Frankie Montas, Charlie Morton, Yu Darvish, Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, Pablo Lopez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tanner Houck, Patrick Sandoval, John Means, Sonny Gray

Avoids: Zack Wheeler, Julio Urias, Chris Auction, Max Fried, Jose Berrios, Trevor Rogers, Justin Verlander, Blake Snell, Carlos Rodon, Tyler Mahle, Chris Bassitt, Lance McCullers Jr., Mike Clevinger

Relief Bullpen

For me, this is very simple this yr. If I'thousand in a normal league where I can option up players every twenty-four hours or week, I'1000 not spending on relievers. Let the remainder of the league utilize their valuable picks on the top guys, and just buy a few cheap guys late and then exist gear up to piece of work the waivers to stay competitive in saves.

Targets: Lucas Sims, Scott Barlow, Corey Knebel, Lou Trivino

Avoids: Josh Hader, Liam Hendriks, Raisel Iglesias

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Source: https://www.rotoballer.com/fantasy-baseball-2022-draft-guide/999012

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